Issue - meetings

A: OUTTURN FOR 2024-25 Q2

B: SCHOOLS BLOCK TRANSFER 2026-27 TO SUPPORT SAFTEY VALVE

To consider reports from:

A: Lee House, Service Manager (Finance) – Children’s Services, Finance and Commercial, Corporate Development Directorate

B: Ross Bowell, Head of Service, Health Education & SEND Commissioning, Commissioning and Partnerships. People – Children Directorate

For information/approval

Forum received an update on the Q2 outturn for the Dedicated Schools Grant, covering the period to the end of September 2025. Officers reported that the financial position had worsened slightly since the last meeting, with the projected overspend now standing at £52.79 million compared to £52.5 million at Q1. This continues to be driven primarily by pressures within the High Needs Block.

It was noted that issues with the SEND Case Management System remain unresolved and have been escalated to the Council’s corporate risk register. While the report does not yet include the full suite of analysis, work is continuing to improve data quality.

Officers outlined the main drivers of the overspend, drawing on findings from the National Audit Office report published in October 2024.These include the rapid growth in Education, Health and Care Plans, which have increased by 140% since 2015, alongside a 35% reduction in funding per plan over the same period. Other pressures include the high cost of independent special school placements, increased reliance on bespoke packages and individual top-up funding, administrative burdens, and shortages of specialist staff. Members noted that misaligned incentives across health and education, and the lack of funding for early intervention, further compound these challenges.

In addition, it was noted that many of the key players in the independent special school space also operate children's social care provision which also continues to be a challenged market. A recent article advocated that the overall market needs significant structural change

Forum acknowledged that Dorset’s position reflects these national trends but welcomed the proactive steps taken locally. These include the creation of 323 new special school and alternative provision places, alongside 180 mainstream inclusion places, and investment in early intervention programmes such as the Value in SEND initiative. Despite these efforts, the scale of demand continues to outstrip available resources.

Safety Valve payments from the Department for Education remain paused. Officers confirmed that engagement with the DfE is ongoing, supported by lobbying through the LGA and local MPs. Members expressed concern about the impact of this pause on the Council’s ability to deliver its recovery plan.

Forum also noted the significant expansion of the Early Years Block, now £45 million following the introduction of extended childcare entitlements for younger children. While this growth is positive, it adds complexity to financial planning.

During discussion, members highlighted that the lack of capacity in special schools is driving an increasing reliance on specialist-in-mainstream arrangements. While intended as a short-term measure, this approach risks becoming embedded and could lead to escalating costs, inconsistent provision, and pressure on mainstream schools. The Forum requested a review of the current cohort, including numbers, costs, and the impact on the High Needs Block, alongside an update on how sufficiency planning within the wider SEND strategy will address these pressures. Officers confirmed that this analysis will be brought to a future meeting.

Actions:

2025/07 – Provide data on specialist-in-mainstream placements, associated costs, and sufficiency planning for review