Agenda item

To a consider report from:

Steve Gorson, Service Manager (Children’s Finance) –, Finance & Commercial, Corporate Development Directorate

Ross Bowell, Head of Service Health, Education & SEND Commissioning, Commissioning and Partnerships, People – Children Directorate

Ellen Eager, Sufficiency and Funding Manager Health, Education & SEND Commissioning, Commissioning and Partnerships, People – Children Directorate

For consultation

The Forum received an update on the projected High Needs Block (HNB) position for 2026–27. The presentation highlighted that although the HNB allocation shows a headline increase of £4.7 million, this uplift is entirely the result of rolled‑in grants, rather than additional funding. In practice, the expenditure requirements attached to these grants exceed the income by approximately £0.5 million, effectively creating a reduction in real terms.

Modelling for 2026–27 identifies a projected in‑year deficit of around £73.3 million, largely driven by rising numbers of Education, Health and Care Plans (EHCPs), continued pressure on specialist placements, increased use of alternative provision, and inflationary impacts. Forecasts indicate that the number of EHCPs will rise to just over 5,000 next year, continuing the long‑term upward trend.

Forum members queried why several new grants had been absorbed into the block and were directed to the list included in the report appendices. These relate to a range of provision types including further education and specialist academy places.

During discussion, Forum members raised several points:

Alternative Provision (AP) pressures: Concern was expressed about the 25% projected increase in AP expenditure. Members emphasised that the operational burden on schools—particularly the administrative time needed to commission and monitor AP—continues to grow without associated funding. Examples were provided of delays in securing transport, which can result in schools paying for provision that pupils are unable to attend. The Forum asked that these issues be addressed within wider planning.

Independent specialist placements: It was noted that spending in this area has risen significantly and now represents a substantial share of the overall HNB budget. Members requested a more detailed breakdown of placement numbers and costs to support future scrutiny. An updated report will be circulated outside the meeting.

Opportunities for Learning Centre‑led alternatives: The Forum reiterated that there may be opportunities for locally delivered alternatives to certain AP packages if appropriate staffing models can be funded. Members noted that previous proposals had not progressed and asked that these be revisited as part of wider SEND improvement work.

The national context was also considered. The recently published SEND White Paper sets out an intention for the Department for Education to potentially fund up to 90% of local authority DSG deficits, subject to each authority submitting an approved plan. Early estimates indicate that, for Dorset, this could equate to a contribution of around £135 million, although a local contribution would still be required. The Forum noted that the forthcoming improvement plan will need to demonstrate both improved outcomes and a credible route to long‑term financial sustainability.

Members also highlighted the implications for mainstream schools. It was recognised that national policy changes envisage a shift towards more children being educated locally in mainstream settings, which may in future place greater financial responsibility on school budgets. Concerns were raised about the scale of efficiencies that could be required and the importance of coordinated system‑wide support.

The Forum concluded that while the financial position remains extremely challenging, further clarity is expected through the SEND reform timetable. A more detailed discussion will take place at the upcoming HNB workshop, where options for investment, commissioning, and cost management will be explored in greater depth.